On Friday, March 21, 2025, StubHub, the online ticket resale giant, filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “STUB.” After a rollercoaster ride—from a $310 million eBay buyout in 2007 to a $4 billion reacquisition by co-founder Eric Baker via Viagogo in 2020—StubHub’s latest act reveals a mixed financial encore: $1.77 billion in 2024 revenue (up 29% from $1.37 billion in 2023) but a swing to a $2.8 million net loss from a $405 million profit. As the IPO market thaws post-2022, can StubHub capitalize on its 40 million ticket sales and outpace rivals like SeatGeek and Live Nation? Here’s the play-by-play.
A Financial Snapshot: Growth Meets Headwinds
StubHub’s 2024 haul of $1.77 billion reflects a post-pandemic live events boom—think Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour or Beyoncé’s Renaissance run—fueling a 27% jump in gross merchandise sales to $8.7 billion (per prospectus). Over 1 million sellers moved 40 million tickets across 200 countries, cementing its resale throne. Yet, the $2.8 million loss—vs. 2023’s $405 million profit—raises eyebrows. Higher sales and marketing costs ($828 million vs. $518 million, per Reuters) and debt servicing ($2.33 billion long-term, per Billboard) ate into margins. Adjusted EBITDA fell 16% to $298.7 million, hinting at scaling pains. X’s @cjgustafson222 broke it down: “20.4% take rate, $255M EBITDA—solid, but that loss stings.”
The Eric Baker Comeback Story
Founded in 2000 by Baker and Jeff Fluhr, StubHub pioneered ticket reselling. Baker’s exit in 2006 birthed Viagogo; his 2020 reunion via a $4 billion deal flipped a $310 million eBay sale into a $16.5 billion valuation target (CNBC, 2024). Now holding 90% voting power (5% Class A, 100% Class B shares), Baker’s steering StubHub public to pay down debt and fuel growth. Posts on X, like @NeilRetail’s “StubHub files as markets remain anxious,” a nod to his timing gamble amid Trump tariff jitters (sentiment at 57.9, U. Michigan).
Rivals and the Live Events Arena
StubHub’s not alone in the pit. SeatGeek, eyeing an IPO last year with Citi and Wells Fargo, seeks $1.35 billion (Bloomberg, June 2024). Vivid Seats ($1.2 billion market cap, FactSet) and Live Nation ($24 billion) loom—Vivid’s 45% stock drop in 2024 (Axios) hints at sector volatility. StubHub dwarfs Vivid’s $3.9 billion GTV with its $8.7 billion, but Ticketmaster’s $34.7 billion GTV (Billboard) shows the primary market’s muscle. “The market loves a narrative, but resale’s risky,” warned @007ofWallSt on X, citing regulation and flux.
IPO Thaw: StubHub Joins the Lineup
After a 2022 IPO freeze—sparked by rising rates and inflation—2025’s warming up. CoreWeave’s AI-driven debut looms next week, Klarna filed March 14, and Hinge Health hit the SEC earlier this month. ServiceTitan (December) and Reddit (November 2024) paved the way, with Renaissance Capital noting 43 IPOs raising $6.9 billion YTD (down 9.9% from 2024). StubHub’s 2023 delay (CNBC) dodged “choppy conditions”—now, it’s testing Wall Street’s appetite. @John_Banks12 on X quipped: “Funny, after tariff uncertainty talk, the market’s thawing.”
What’s Next for STUB?
StubHub’s IPO proceeds target its $2.33 billion debt (8x adjusted EBITDA), with leftovers for ops and capex. A $1 billion-plus raise (NYT estimate) could value it near $16.5 billion—if shares price well. Risks? Trump’s tariffs could dent consumer spending, and rivals like SeatGeek might steal the spotlight. X’s @StratRedTM skeptically asked: “Who’s excited for ticket reseller stock in 2024?” Yet, FIFA 2026 buzz (IPOX’s Josef Schuster) could lift live event stocks.
Will StubHub’s encore sell out? Q2 pricing and CoreWeave’s debut will signal if this thaw’s real. For now, Baker’s betting big on a public stage—watch STUB’s opening act closely.
