As the generative AI boom rolls into its fourth year—sparked by ChatGPT’s 2022 debut—Wall Street’s appetite for chipmaker earnings has hit a fever pitch. On Thursday, March 6, 2025, Marvell Technology’s shares nosedived 20%—their worst drop since 2001—despite beating average analyst forecasts, per LSEG. Why? The bar’s no longer “good enough”; it’s stratospheric, fueled by 2024’s giddy stock runs—Marvell’s up 83%, Nvidia’s doubled, AMD’s soared. Investors, bloated with gains, now demand perfection. Friday’s twist? Broadcom bucked the trend, spiking 12% after hours on a stellar Q1 beat.
Marvell’s Fall: Expectations Outpace Reality
Marvell’s Q4 revenue and guidance topped LSEG’s consensus—$1.42 billion actual versus $1.41 billion expected, with a $1.45 billion forecast—but fell short of lofty “buyside” whispers tracked by Cantor analysts. “The guide was definitively below expectations,” they wrote, triggering the steepest sell-off in 24 years. The stock hit $92 in December and slumped to $73 by Thursday’s close. Posts on X griped, “AI hype priced in too much—Marvell couldn’t deliver the moon.” Its data center growth (up 54%) impressed, but not enough for a market craving triple-digit leaps.
Nvidia and AMD felt the heat earlier. Nvidia’s February 26 report—$30 billion revenue, crushing $28.7 billion estimates—still shed 8.5% as growth slowed from 2024’s 200% pace. AMD dropped 6% on February 11 despite a beat, stung by a data center miss ($6.5 billion versus $6.7 billion hoped). Even Credo Technology, with 117% revenue growth to $85 million, cratered 24% over two days—Wednesday’s 14% dip plus Thursday’s 10%—as guidance ($100 million) didn’t wow.
Broadcom Breaks the Curse
Then came Broadcom’s Friday reprieve. After shedding 6% Thursday amid sector jitters, it roared back 12% after hours, hitting $190 from $165. Q1’s $14.92 billion revenue and $1.60 EPS smashed LSEG’s $14.61 billion and $1.49, with AI sales soaring 77% to $4.1 billion. “A reassuring update from an AI leader,” Bank of America’s Vivek Arya cheered, lifting its market cap toward $850 billion. X posts crowed, “Broadcom’s the real AI king—Nvidia who?”
Why the Whiplash?
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, heavy with Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom, reflects the rollercoaster—up 72% in 2023, 39% in 2024, but down 13% in two weeks. Chipmakers fueled AI’s $20 trillion GDP promise (per IDC), but 2025’s headwinds—Trump’s tariffs on China (10%) and Canada/Mexico (25%), plus export curbs—spook investors. TSMC, making 90% of advanced chips in Taiwan, is a tariff choke point; Marvell and Nvidia feel the pinch. Yet Broadcom’s custom AI chips for hyperscalers (think Microsoft, per CoreWeave’s IPO) dodge the heat—for now.
What’s Next for AI Chips in 2025?
Wall Street’s punishing even winners as AI’s buildout matures. Marvell’s $73 floor could slip to $60 if tariffs bite; Nvidia’s $115 (down from $148) needs a catalyst—Friday’s White House Crypto Summit might hint at relief. Broadcom’s $190 surge could test $200 if AI contracts flow. With MWC 2025’s foldables fading and Tesla’s 7-week skid, chips are the tech pulse. Will tariffs tank the rally, or can Broadcom’s hyperscaler bets save the day? The next earnings wave—and Trump’s trade moves—will hold the key.
