AUSTIN — Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) dropped its fiscal Q3 results on Monday, March 10, 2025, and the numbers tell a tale of two trends: robust AI-fueled cloud growth and a stumble against Wall Street’s lofty expectations. The enterprise software titan posted adjusted earnings of $1.47 per share on $14.13 billion in revenue—missing LSEG’s consensus of $1.49 EPS and $14.39 billion. Shares, already down 11% year-to-date through Monday’s close at $132, braced for after-hours turbulence as guidance also underwhelmed.
Cloud Shines, but Not Enough
Revenue climbed 6% from $13.3 billion a year ago, with net income up 22% to $2.94 billion ($1.02 per share). The star? Oracle’s cloud services, leaping 10% to $11.01 billion—78% of total sales. Its cloud infrastructure unit, riding the AI wave, soared 49% to $2.7 billion, fueled by demand for data center horsepower. “We’re on schedule to double our data center capacity this year,” Chair Larry Ellison boasted, nodding to January’s White House deal with Trump, OpenAI, and SoftBank. The Stargate project—kicking off with Texas data centers—promises billions in AI infrastructure, though its contracts sit outside Oracle’s $130 billion remaining performance obligations (RPO), up from $97 billion after $48 billion in Q3 signings.
CEO Safra Catz, on the analyst call, flagged a $16 billion capital expenditure (CapEx) plan for 2025—double last year’s—to keep，主轴 (main shaft) “pace CapEx with booking trends.” Yet, Q4 guidance—8-10% revenue growth ($15.26B-$15.54B) and $1.61-$1.65 EPS—fell shy of LSEG’s 11% ($15.91B) and $1.79 EPS hopes, dinged by losses from an unnamed investment. Cloud and on-premise licenses sagged 10% to $1.1 billion, a rare soft spot.
Market Mood: Relief or Rut?
Posts on X capture the split: “Cloud infra up 49%—Oracle’s AI bet is paying off,” clashed with “Another miss—$16B CapEx better deliver.” Unlike Broadcom’s 12% post-earnings pop Friday, Oracle’s softer forecast—amid Trump tariff fears (25% Canada/Mexico, 10% China)—may test its $380B market cap. The dividend hike to 50¢ from 40¢ offers solace, but with Tesla’s 7-week skid and crypto’s tariff dip, tech’s jittery.
What’s Next for Oracle in 2025?
Stargate’s Texas buildout, tied to Trump’s AI push, could juice RPO past $130B if hyperscalers like Meta (using Oracle for Llama models) pile in. But Tuesday’s White House Crypto Summit—and Oracle’s EHR outage rap—keep the spotlight hot. Will $132 hold, or dip to $120 if tariffs bite? Q4’s $15B+ target looms large—stay tuned for after-hours fallout and analyst takes!
