On Thursday, March 6, 2025, MongoDB shares cratered over 20% in after-hours trading, erasing months of gains after the database software maker issued a fiscal 2026 (FY26) outlook that fell far short of Wall Street’s hopes. The New York-based company projected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.44 to $2.62 and revenue of $2.24 billion to $2.28 billion—well below analyst expectations of $3.34 EPS and $2.32 billion in revenue, per LSEG polls. The news sent shockwaves through the market, overshadowing a robust Q4 performance and raising questions about MongoDB’s growth engine, its Atlas cloud database service.
Weak Guidance: Atlas Slowdown to Blame
The culprit? A deceleration in Atlas, MongoDB’s cloud-based juggernaut, which now accounts for 71% of revenue. Finance chief Srdjan Tanjga told analysts on Wednesday’s earnings call that new applications leveraging Atlas are growing slower than anticipated. The FY26 revenue forecast implies just 12.7% growth—the company’s weakest since its 2017 IPO, a stark drop from the 57% surge two years ago. Posts on X echo the unease, with traders lamenting, “Atlas was supposed to be the future—where’s the juice?”
For fiscal Q1, MongoDB offered a cautious 63 to 67 cents EPS on $524 million to $529 million in revenue, roughly in line with LSEG’s 62 cents and $526.8 million estimates. But it’s the long-term outlook that’s rattled investors. Wells Fargo’s Andrew Nowinski downgraded the stock to equal weight, slashing his price target, citing “a smaller pool of multi-year deals” that could cap upside in FY26. “Shares will likely stay range-bound,” he warned, per his analysis shared with CNBC.
Q4 Shine Dulled by Future Fears
The dour guidance buried a stellar Q4. MongoDB reported adjusted EPS of $1.28 on $548 million in revenue—crushing forecasts of 66 cents and $520 million—driven by 20% year-over-year growth. Atlas itself grew 24%, and the company flipped to a $15.8 million profit from a $55.5 million loss a year ago. CEO Dev Ittycheria touted “stable consumption growth” and the acquisition of AI startup Voyage to bolster its AI offerings, but the market fixated on FY26’s 12.7% growth projection—a far cry from the triple-digit jumps of yesteryear.
Strategic Shift: Big Bets on Big Clients
MongoDB isn’t sitting still. Tanjga revealed the company is ramping up hiring to chase larger enterprise deals, pivoting from mid-sized businesses. It’s a high-stakes move to offset Atlas’s slowdown and capitalize on what Ittycheria calls a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” in AI-driven databases. Posts on X speculate this could juice Atlas growth by mid-2026 if it lands heavyweights like Microsoft or Meta—clients CoreWeave’s IPO filing this week showed lean heavily on GPU clouds.
What’s Next for MongoDB in 2025?
MongoDB’s tumble mirrors a jittery tech sector—CrowdStrike slumped 6% on its own weak outlook the same day, and tariff fears sank Bitcoin 8%. Yet, some see a silver lining. Jefferies analysts, despite cutting their target from $420 to $286, held a ‘Buy’ rating, arguing Atlas’s 21% implied FY26 growth (adjusted for non-Atlas declines) could rebound as last year’s usage dips cycle out.
Will MongoDB’s big-client pivot pay off, or is Atlas’s slowdown a sign of deeper cracks? With MWC 2025 buzzing over Lenovo’s foldables and CoreWeave’s IPO hype, MongoDB’s next moves—and Friday’s White House Crypto Summit—could sway sentiment. For now, it’s a $207 stock (down from $265 pre-drop) searching for a floor. Stay tuned for more earnings fallout and analyst takes!
