BEDFORD, MA — Shares of iRobot (NASDAQ: IRBT) tanked over 30% Wednesday, March 12, 2025, after the Roomba maker warned of “substantial doubt” about its ability to stay afloat for the next 12 months. The grim outlook, buried in its Q4 earnings report, follows a brutal year since Amazon ditched its $1.7 billion buyout in January 2024 under regulatory heat. Once a robotics pioneer, iRobot’s now grappling with a $77.1 million net loss, a 44% revenue dive to $172 million (missing FactSet’s $180.8M estimate), and a $200 million Carlyle Group loan that’s tightening the noose.
A Post-Amazon Spiral
The Amazon deal’s collapse—torpedoed by EU antitrust threats and looming FTC challenges—left iRobot cash-strapped. A $94 million breakup fee helped, but $75 million went straight to Carlyle under loan terms, per filings. Since 2023, iRobot’s slashed 51% of its workforce (down to ~550 from 1,130) and pinned hopes on eight new Roombas launched Tuesday. “We’re repositioning as the category leader,” CEO Gary Cohen said, but the earnings filing doused optimism: “No assurance” of success amid “limited demand, tariff uncertainty, and heightened competition” from China’s Anker, Ecovacs, and Roborock.
Q4’s $2.52 per-share loss (adjusted $2.06, topping FactSet’s $1.73 forecast) underscores the bleed—revenue cratered as inflation and rivals erode iRobot’s edge. Posts on X lament, “Roomba’s toast—China’s eating their lunch.”
Carlyle’s $200M Anchor
In July 2023, iRobot borrowed $200 million from Carlyle at 14.3% interest (9% + SOFR) to bridge the Amazon wait—a pricey lifeline now haunting it. A $3.6 million fee bought a waiver on covenants, but the loan’s due July 2026, and cash reserves ($134M year-end) are thinning. “Substantial doubt” signals bankruptcy risk if sales don’t rebound. The board’s launched a strategic review—refinancing or a sale are on the table, no timeline set. “They’re shopping it, but who’d buy this mess?” an X trader quipped.
Trump Tariffs and Tech’s Rough Week
Monday’s Nasdaq 4% plunge—$750B lost across tech giants—set a bleak stage; Trump’s tariff threats (25% Canada/Mexico, 10% China) loom large for iRobot’s supply chain. Amazon’s Andy Jassy, in April 2024, called the deal’s death a “sad story”—arguing it would’ve fueled iRobot against China’s rise. “Regulators killed a lifeline,” he told CNBC. Now, with Bitcoin below $80K and Tesla down 15%, iRobot’s $100M market cap (from $400M pre-2024) looks like a fire sale waiting to happen.
What’s Next for iRobot in 2025?
Can eight Roombas save the day? Analysts doubt it—10x Research sees a $3 floor if debt chokes cash flow. A sale’s possible (SharkNinja’s $3B valuation tempts), but tariff hikes and Chinese rivals could scare buyers. Tuesday’s JOLTS data and Wednesday’s CPI might deepen recession fears, sinking risk assets further. With Eutelsat’s 390% surge and Binance’s $2B boost elsewhere, iRobot’s a stark cautionary tale—innovation’s not enough when debt and geopolitics strike. Stay tuned for strategic review updates—this Roomba’s wheels are wobbling.
