BARCELONA — As Mobile World Congress (MWC) 2025 wraps up today, March 7, a different tech battle rages stateside. Short-seller Fuzzy Panda Research has upped the ante in its war on AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP), urging the S&P 500 Index Committee to bar the ad-tech firm from the benchmark in a March 4 letter obtained by CNBC. Coming a week after its February 26 report dubbed AppLovin’s AXON software “the nexus of a house of cards,” Fuzzy Panda’s latest move aims to derail the company’s meteoric rise—its stock soared 700% in 2024, pushing its market cap past $110 billion.
The Allegations: Fraud, Data Theft, and Child Privacy
Fuzzy Panda’s letter doubles down on claims that AppLovin’s revenue growth—tied to its AI-driven AXON 2.0 ad platform—stems from “data theft, revenue fraud, and the exploitation of laws protecting children.” The firm alleges AppLovin swiped data from Meta for its e-commerce push and tracked kids’ devices, flouting Apple and Google app store rules. Its research, based on ex-employee interviews, industry chats, and tech tests, warns of a “permanent ban” risk from the app store duopoly controlling 99% of the mobile market. A parallel February 26 report from Culper Research echoed fraud accusations, tanking AppLovin’s stock 12% that day. Neither CNBC nor I could verify these claims independently—Meta, Apple, and Google stayed mum.
S&P 500 Stakes: A $110B Giant in Limbo
AppLovin’s 2024 rally made it a shoo-in for the S&P 500, where the median market cap is $36 billion. Inclusion often sparks stock pops as index funds snap up shares—Workday, added in December despite a lower valuation, jumped 5%. But AppLovin’s snub last rebalancing triggered a 15% plunge, and Fuzzy Panda’s letter argues it doesn’t meet the index’s “gold standard.” With the next quarterly shuffle due this month, today’s S&P decision (expected after market close) could sway AppLovin’s trajectory. Posts on X buzz with speculation: “If APP misses again, shorts win big.”
AppLovin Fights Back—But Stock Sinks
CEO Adam Foroughi fired back in a February blog post, slamming the short reports as “nefarious” and “littered with inaccuracies.” He touted AXON’s legit AI chops, powering a February earnings beat that sent shares past $500—up 34% in two days. Wall Street largely agrees: BTIG called the allegations “almost no merit,” and Piper urged buying the dip, noting sophisticated ad clients would spot fraud fast. Yet, the stock’s down nearly 50% since closing Thursday at $258 after an 18% drop—far outpacing the broader market’s tariff-driven wobble (Bitcoin fell 8% Monday).
Fuzzy Panda’s Track Record: Hit or Miss?
Fuzzy Panda’s no stranger to big swings—its April hit on Globe Life sank shares 50% with insurance fraud claims (Globe Life called it “wildly misleading”). Of its 20-ish targets—like Fisker and Lucid—some stung, others fizzled. AppLovin’s case hinges on whether its AXON-fueled $1B+ Q4 ad revenue (up 73% year-over-year) holds up under scrutiny—or crumbles if Apple or Google act. Posts on X debate: “Fuzzy’s got a nose for scams, but APP’s too big to fail.”
What’s Next for AppLovin in March 2025?
Today’s S&P call is make-or-break. Inclusion could lift AppLovin from its $258 perch; exclusion might deepen the bleed, especially with Tesla’s 7-week skid and MongoDB’s 20% guidance flop rocking tech. Fuzzy Panda stands to cash in if shares tank—its short bet’s already halved AppLovin’s February peak. Meanwhile, MWC’s foldable phone hype contrasts with this Silicon Valley slugfest. Will AppLovin’s AI shine through, or is Fuzzy Panda’s “house of cards” call prophetic? Check back tonight for the S&P verdict!
