PARIS — Last week, French satellite operator Eutelsat (ETL.PA) stunned markets, surging nearly 390% from its February 28 close to Friday’s finish. The stock leapt 77% Tuesday, 120% Wednesday, and added 22% by 1 p.m. Paris time Monday, March 10, 2025—pushing its market cap to $4.02 billion, per Business Insider. What’s fueling this wild ride? A seismic shift in European defense strategy and speculation that Eutelsat could supplant Elon Musk’s Starlink in war-torn Ukraine. Here’s the breakdown.
Who Is Eutelsat?
Eutelsat, a French satellite powerhouse, deploys 35 geostationary orbit (GEO) and over 600 low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites—boosted by its 2023 merger with Britain’s OneWeb. Third globally in satellite revenue, it’s a direct rival to Musk’s Starlink (7,000+ LEO satellites). Eutelsat’s rockets, often launched via SpaceX, serve data connectivity across Europe and beyond. Its OneWeb LEO constellation—second only to Starlink—offers 150 Mbps broadband, trailing Starlink’s 200 Mbps but viable for critical applications, per Reuters.
Why the Surge? Ukraine and Trump’s Pivot
The rally ignited amid reports Eutelsat could replace Starlink in Ukraine, where 40,000+ terminals have been a military lifeline since Russia’s 2022 invasion. U.S.-Ukraine ties frayed post-Trump’s January 20 inauguration—last week, he paused all military aid after clashing with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, shifting focus to Moscow talks. February whispers of U.S. negotiators leveraging Starlink access for Ukraine’s rare earth minerals (Reuters) fanned fears of a cutoff, especially with Musk, Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency head, in the mix.
On March 4, Eutelsat confirmed EU talks to expand Ukraine’s internet access, sparking a 68% share jump the prior day. CEO Eva Berneke told Bloomberg, “Everyone’s asking, ‘Can you replace Starlink’s terminals in Ukraine?’ We’re looking at that.” Poland, funding half of Ukraine’s Starlink terminals ($50M yearly, per Sikorski), hinted at seeking alternatives if Musk’s service falters—cue Eutelsat’s moment.
Can Eutelsat Step Up?
Scale’s the question. Eutelsat’s 600+ LEO satellites (via OneWeb) pale next to Starlink’s 7,000, but it claims parity in European coverage and latency. Already active in Ukraine with “hundreds of terminals” (CCN), scaling to 40,000 could take “a couple of months, not years,” Berneke said—assuming funding (OneWeb terminals cost $10K vs. Starlink’s $589). The EU’s $840 billion defense spending pledge (von der Leyen, March 4) could bankroll it, especially as Trump’s pullback pushes Europe to flex autonomy. Posts on X buzz, “Eutelsat’s the cheapest defense play on Earth if Starlink bails.”
Musk’s Pushback and Market Jitters
Musk fired back Sunday on X, warning Ukraine’s “entire front line would collapse” without Starlink—prompting Poland’s Radoslaw Sikorski to call it unreliable. Musk mocked Sikorski (“small man”), while Rubio denied cutoff threats. Poland’s PM Donald Tusk backed Sikorski Monday, per NBC. Meanwhile, Monday’s Nasdaq 4% crash—$750B lost across tech giants—hit crypto too (Bitcoin below $80K), amplifying risk-off vibes. Eutelsat’s 22% Monday gain defied the gloom, but a Friday 16.6% dip (Reuters) hints at profit-taking.
What’s Next for Eutelsat in 2025?
Eutelsat’s poised if Starlink stumbles—OneWeb’s 2,000 Ukraine terminals could triple fast, per The Register. But replacing 40,000 units faces hurdles: cost, manufacturing, and Starlink’s entrenched scale. Trump’s Friday Crypto Summit might clarify U.S. intent; Tuesday’s JOLTS data could deepen recession fears, pressuring risk assets. Will Eutelsat hit €9 again (from €1 pre-rally), or cool off? With Tesla’s 15% skid and X’s outages, Musk’s orbit wobbles—Eutelsat’s betting Europe can fill the void. Stay tuned!
